GUN Study finds that buybacks do not lower gun murder or suicide rates

Discussion in 'On Topic' started by TL1000RSquid, Oct 24, 2006.

  1. TL1000RSquid

    TL1000RSquid ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ

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    Well no fucking shit you don't say?
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,20630127-1702,00.html


    Buyback has not cut gun violence: study

    October 23, 2006 04:24pm
    Article from: AAP

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    AUSTRALIA'S guns buyback has not reduced rates of gun murder or suicide, a new study says.

    The paper, published in the British Journal of Criminology and written by pro-gun lobbyists Jeanine Baker and Samara McPhedran, found the buyback of 640,000 guns at a cost of some $500 million failed to make Australia safer.

    That contrasts with the views of other studies and Prime Minister John Howard, who say the guns buyback has made Australia safer.

    The buyback and tough national gun laws were instituted in the wake of the 1996 Port Arthur massacre, when lone gunman Martin Bryant armed himself with an arsenal of semi-automatic weapons and killed 35 people.

    Self-loading rifles and self-loading and pump-action shotguns were banned, with a 12-month amnesty period for people to hand in their weapons and receive compensation.

    The laws outraged farmers and recreational shooters but were widely accepted as necessary to stop future massacres.

    The new paper disputes whether the laws have worked.

    Ms McPhedran is the chairwoman of the International Coalition for Women in Shooting and Hunting, while Dr Baker is the South Australian president of the Sporting Shooters Association of Australia.

    They cited data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC) to say the gun law reforms had not affected actual gun murder rates per 100,000 of population.

    Neither could the reforms be shown to have altered firearm suicide rates because suicide rates by other means had also begun to decline in the late 1990s.

    “Reducing the number of legally held firearms, banning certain firearms, and increasing the requirements that must be met to legally own firearms has not produced the desired outcome of a safer society,” Ms McPhedran said.

    “We cannot say firearm suicide rates were affected by the laws. Social changes and emphasis on prevention initiatives appear to have lowered suicides using all methods.”

    AIC figures point to a long-term trend in falling gun death which preceded the 1996 gun laws reforms and continued after it.

    In the period 1991-2001 the number of firearm deaths in Australia, including murder, suicide and accidents, dropped by almost 50 per cent.

    But University of Sydney public health professor Simon Chapman attacked the report, complaining aspects were “verging on academic dishonesty”.

    Professor Chapman said the study failed to differentiate between gun deaths where one or two people were killed and the large-scale massacres that the tough gun laws were designed to prevent.

    Prof Chapman said the best evidence that Mr Howard's gun laws were working was that there had been no mass shooting sprees since they were introduced.

    The professor said the paper was based on “statistical smoke and mirrors”.
     
  2. BigBadJohn

    BigBadJohn Pay-back time OT Supporter

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    :rly:

    That is all that needs to be said
     
  3. DaJMan

    DaJMan When i was young, i dreamed of being a baseball

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    not gonna change much in this tight ass fucking country :(
     
  4. Soybomb

    Soybomb New Member

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    In other news coke says cola is good for you.
     
  5. BigBadJohn

    BigBadJohn Pay-back time OT Supporter

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    Actually it is.

    I can have the worst hangover ever and feel like throwing up. Drink a coke or two, and I feel as if I never drank the night before.
     
  6. Zombie Pornstar

    Zombie Pornstar I'm cumming RAWL

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    Yeah because the acid numbs your insides :ugh2:
     
  7. BigBadJohn

    BigBadJohn Pay-back time OT Supporter

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    An ice cold coke after being out in the sun all day or right after not having one all week is great
     
  8. Artyboy

    Artyboy Necessity is the excuse for every infringement of

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    Glad I'm not the only one that noticed that. How many massacres did they have before the gun ban? How many YEARS were firearms laws in Australia on par with America's? I found a bunch of aboriginee massacres in Australia in the 1800s and early 1900s but the Port Arthur Massacre was the only really bloody massacre I found that happened recently. It's pretty easy to prevent something from happening again when it's only ever happened once.
     
  9. Vermincelli

    Vermincelli Banned

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    GET OFF MY LAWN!
    Funny how the "experts" claim it's statistical smoke and mirrors when it's something positive yet use the exact same statistical system and claim it's exact and scientific when they want to show a negative. Just like here in the US.
     
  10. Gimik

    Gimik New Member

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    This reminds me of the anti-tiger rock thing from the simpsons :rofl:
     
  11. Artyboy

    Artyboy Necessity is the excuse for every infringement of

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    :werd: Butt xpertz r smrtr thin us
     
  12. jeepilot

    jeepilot Banned

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    This man speaks the trooth:bowdown:
     
  13. Soybomb

    Soybomb New Member

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    While thats an excellent observation, one I would have been pround to make, that wasn't quite my point. I was getting at the author's of the study are biased. Before work began they already knew what conclusion they wanted to reach. Its quite possible the paper is academically sound. Its more probable that the methodology of the paper is biased toward their desired conclusion.

    Do I think the conclusion is accurate? Yes. Do I think its provable academically? Not especially, I think there are just too many other factors that come into play that cannot be eliminated. Without reading the paper I certainly wouldn't be willing to cite it any more than I would john lott's work.
     
  14. Artyboy

    Artyboy Necessity is the excuse for every infringement of

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    That seems to be the way that the anti gun crowd puts their papers together as well. You don't see too many "on the fence" scientists out there that are willing to put together an in depth, non biased study.
     
  15. Gimik

    Gimik New Member

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    Since no one seems to care, here's the quote that I was talking about!

    Homer Simpson: Not a bear in sight. The Bear Patrol must be working like a charm.
    Lisa Simpson: That’s specious reasoning, Dad.
    Homer: Thank you, dear.
    Lisa: By your logic I could claim that this rock keeps tigers away.
    Homer: Oh, how does it work?
    Lisa: It doesn’t work.
    Homer: Uh-huh.
    Lisa: It’s just a stupid rock.
    Homer: Uh-huh.
    Lisa: But I don’t see any tigers around, do you?
    Homer: Lisa, I want to buy your rock.
     
  16. spankaveli

    spankaveli OT Supporter

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    :rofl: :bigthumb:
     
  17. Sloi

    Sloi Back up in your ass with the resurrection

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  18. Artyboy

    Artyboy Necessity is the excuse for every infringement of

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    Brilliant :bowrofl:. Someone needs to show this to the Australian government :rofl:
     
  19. Soybomb

    Soybomb New Member

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    I'm not sure it is even possible to put together an academic study on if one small factor has an impact on a much broader problem and I think that might be why don't see such matters. To go back to the john lott example again, I can prove that people with concealed carry licences commit a certain number of firearms related violent crimes. Conversely though I don't see how a drop in the crime rate for an area could ever be conclusively tied to concealed carry laws. There are just so very many other factors that come into play. And honestly concealed carry probably doesn't impact crime rates, either postively or negatively. Correlation is not causation.

    This paper seems to suffer from the same flaws. Massacres are statistically insignificant to begin with. Murder rates and suicide rates are influenced by so many other factors. I just don't see how academically one could ever show anything but correlation, which isn't all that impressive.

    My main thing is really I just want gun owners to use facts that are of higher quality than the brady group would use. Instead of citing john lott or a study like this cite actual numbers like that "In Florida there have been 1.1 million concealed carry licenses issued since 1987, and 157 (0.01%) revoked due to firearm crimes by licensees." I like honesty and that doesn't seem like agenda pushing to me, that seems like using the honest truth. Who cares if concealed carry lowers the crime rate or not when I can prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that it doesn't impact it negatively?
     
  20. kellyclan

    kellyclan She only loves you when she's drunk.

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    That's the carbonation in it, balancing the pH in your stomach. Mix in a little baking soda for this soothing effect x100.
     
  21. T0nyGTSt

    T0nyGTSt New Member

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    Firstly I'll preface by saying that AU gun laws are not far behind the useless UK model.

    Secondly I'll say that any report put forward by two pro-gun advocates will instantly be ignored even if it is 100% true and impartial.

    Thirdly I'll say that the anti-gun academics are useless in that they have been so poisoned by the anti-gun movement their findings cannot but be tainted.

    Because it is unlikely that Katrina will happen is it a good idea to ignore any sort of disaster prevention?

    That's what these people bank on. No major gun massacres = tough laws are working. That's all they want to see.

    No-one is interested in people being killed or raped or robbed where a gun may have prevented in the first place.
     
  22. Gaunt

    Gaunt blood for the blood god OT Supporter

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    qft
    same thing if you have a headache.
     
  23. Same as america. most the gun crime is in south west sydney by criminal gangs.

    not redneck towns like gympie/tamworth where theya re heaps of legal gun owners.
     

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