Math Crew: Help...effectiveness rate.

Discussion in 'Vaginarium' started by Timer, Aug 8, 2008.

  1. Timer

    Timer Guest

  2. demosnat

    demosnat New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2006
    Messages:
    4,994
    Likes Received:
    0
  3. Timer

    Timer Guest

    How does it not? Nobody addressed that. There's a lot of jumbled math which doesn't come to any good conclusion.
     
  4. Timer

    Timer Guest

    Typical Use (Pill + pull out)
    .05 * .19 = 0.0095, meaning it is 99.9905% effective

    Now with near-perfect (pill + pull out)
    .001*.04 = .00004, meaning it is 99.99996% effective.

    Versus just BC alone:
    95% typical, 99.999% perfect.

    Typical use means they may miss a pill or can be under medications which affect it.

    Ultimately, is comes down to this. Are you sure the girl isn't on medications and hasn't missed a pill? Then the extra .00006% effectiveness is USELESS. However, if she has the chance of messing up, doing both combined is like taking the pill perfectly.

    Source: http://www.fda.gov/Fdac/features/1997/conceptbl.html
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 8, 2008
  5. Timer

    Timer Guest

    am I off or?
     
  6. Vysion

    Vysion New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2003
    Messages:
    4,729
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Twin Cities, MN
    I can just look at women and they get pregnant... it's a cool skill I've developed.
     
  7. Timer

    Timer Guest

    100 percent effective?
     
  8. Timer

    Timer Guest

    bump for proof
     
  9. ware_ru

    ware_ru I know, I know, I'm amazing

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2004
    Messages:
    1,062
    Likes Received:
    0
    demontits you are an idiot, you and your 150 iq and your amazing blowjob skills, unfortunately do not know how to do math, despite all your appraisal of the math gods. Timer's math in the post above is correct. When you are working with probabilities, and you want to see the probability of two mutually exclusive things happening together, you multiply their probabilities, as Timer so deftly did.

    Correct, demontits, you don't add them. But they don't become magical little entities that you can't touch or ever change :rofl:. If the probability of me flipping a coin heads is 50%, YOU CAN FIGURE OUT THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING TWO HEADS WITH TWO COINS! IT'S NOT SOME MAGICAL UNTOUCHABLE THING roflmao, god bless your belief in "math" and your "physician."

    the probability of me flipping two coins and getting two heads is .5*.5 = .25 YAYYYYY
     
  10. ware_ru

    ware_ru I know, I know, I'm amazing

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2004
    Messages:
    1,062
    Likes Received:
    0
    retard
     
  11. Timer

    Timer Guest

    :rofl: that made me laugh
     
  12. Timer

    Timer Guest

    Question now is, what defines PERFECT use? Within an hour of the same time everyday, take 2 pills the day after at the same time if missed one, and no antibiotics?
     
  13. drumbandit

    drumbandit New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2003
    Messages:
    25,811
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    South Point Poker Room - Table 11
    You're correct. I think anyone who doesn't believe the numbers either has failed or has never taken a stats/probability course.
     
  14. Timer

    Timer Guest

    I think I will talk to my girlfriend about this now, see how she feels. Personally, I'm mixed. I know the numbers are factual...but it must be a mental thing stopping me now.
     
  15. Bruticus

    Bruticus half dead OT Supporter

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    Messages:
    4,608
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    It's not like flipping a coin and they aren't necessarily mutually exclusive. However, pulling out isn't a bad idea if she's on BC.
     
  16. ware_ru

    ware_ru I know, I know, I'm amazing

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2004
    Messages:
    1,062
    Likes Received:
    0
    lol my bad, i meant to say independent events, not mutually exclusive. the probability of two mutually exclusive events both occurring is, by definition, 0, obviously.
     
  17. ASoT

    ASoT New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2007
    Messages:
    1,612
    Likes Received:
    0
    You have to question how they arrive at those percentages though. I highly doubt the data they collect represents the entire population. Think about how they survey is done and what type and number of people they don't get data from. Think about external influences such as all the medication that will reduce the effectiveness of the pill. How are they collecting their data? To me it seems they just ask the pregnant people what type of birth control they used. Is this an accurate way of going about collecting a sample to represent the population?
     
  18. Marix

    Marix OT Supporter

    Joined:
    May 23, 2006
    Messages:
    28,024
    Likes Received:
    0
    I would take the fun of being able to cum inside my g/f over the extra .00006% effectiveness
     
  19. Timer

    Timer Guest

    I'm sure they have the experiments done pretty accurately, but I get what you're saying. Effectively, one simply must ask their girlfriend, "Did you take it? Have you missed any? And, are you taking other medications?"

    Take it from there. The extra protection isn't really there.
     
  20. demosnat

    demosnat New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2006
    Messages:
    4,994
    Likes Received:
    0
    I didn't do any actual math :p I said it would make a difference, but one so negligible its half retarded to count it.
    Your second paragraph makes about zero sense when applied to what I said, but i'm so happy to see you back I don't even care.
    I never disagreed with Timers math, his conclusion is correct, we both said if taken correctly theres no reason to double up.
     
  21. ware_ru

    ware_ru I know, I know, I'm amazing

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2004
    Messages:
    1,062
    Likes Received:
    0
    my bad, I saw that you posted and all the blood rushed out of my brain and into my cock. I'm still here beating myself up (off) about the post. pics?
     
  22. Ari1979

    Ari1979 New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2007
    Messages:
    193
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Chicago
    :rofl: i've done this calculation before.

    100% - (5% * 19%) = 99.9905%

    5% being the probability the pill will fail, 19% is the probability pulling out will fail.
     
  23. Rubberducky

    Rubberducky New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2006
    Messages:
    1,115
    Likes Received:
    0
    what about bc then then morning after pill?
     
  24. Bruticus

    Bruticus half dead OT Supporter

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    Messages:
    4,608
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    :rofl: I wouldn't advise using the morning after pill regularly :eek3:
     
  25. Rubberducky

    Rubberducky New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2006
    Messages:
    1,115
    Likes Received:
    0
    no silly i mean if your taking bc regularly then after having unprotected sex you take the morning after pill
     

Share This Page