MMA Handicapping WEC 33 v. Tell me who to bet on..

Discussion in 'OT Bar' started by eof, Mar 25, 2008.

  1. eof

    eof New Member

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    :rofl:

    Here are the current odds from thegreek.com:

    3/26/2008 8:00 PM Doug Marshall vs Brian Stann
    801 Doug Marshall +125
    802 Brian Stann -155

    3/26/2008 8:00 PM Chael Sonnen vs Bryan Baker
    803 Chael Sonnen -350
    804 Bryan Baker +270

    3/26/2008 8:00 PM Marcus Hicks vs Ed Ratcliff
    805 Marcus Hicks -125
    806 Ed Ratcliff -105

    3/26/2008 8:00 PM Tim McKenzie vs Steve Cantwell
    807 Tim McKenzie -135
    808 Steve Cantwell +105

    3/26/2008 8:00 PM Hiromitsu Miura vs Blas Avena
    809 Hiromitsu Miura -200
    810 Blas Avena +170

    3/26/2008 6:00 PM Brock Larson vs John Alessio
    811 Brock Larson -260
    812 John Alessio +200

    3/26/2008 6:00 PM Sergio Gomez vs Rich Crunkilton
    813 Sergio Gomez +170
    814 Rich Crunkilton -200

    I am just starting to do my research...the last few UFC's the odds have been really high (like +300's and higher on every fight pretty much). This is a lot tighter which makes me think either the books are less confident about their handicapping in WEC or the cards are actually fairly even.
     
  2. checkii

    checkii ฝรั่งตาน้ำข้าว

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    The only bet i see that i'd take is

    Blas Avena +170

    even that's not a great line
     
  3. eof

    eof New Member

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    Stann
    ------
    -> The public likes him
    -> Somewhat green but does have 6 fights


    Marshall
    --------
    -> Dropped down a weight class
    -> More experience
    -> Proven power/chin
    -> Has shown an improved ground game in recent fights
    -> His nickname is The Rhino...nuff said

    Both fighers are strikers so it could come down to who has a stronger chin unless Marshall is able to submit him somehow.

    I think there is value with Marshall but am not sure who will win.

    From mmahq.com:
    Doug Marshall Vs. Brian Stann - Brian Stann has been a favorite of the WEC since he joined the promotion in June of 2006. In five professional fights, Stann has not allowed his opponent out of the first round. When the WEC signed on with the Versus network, Stann’s military background made him a natural fighter to promote in this time of war. Stann has a powerful standup game and very little to offer on the ground. His striking style is not that technical but has improved somewhat over his last 2 fights. He may not need technical striking however, fighting a guy like Doug Marshal.

    Marshall is another standup fighter who loves to throw as many heavy punches as he can in as short amount of time as possible. Marshall himself has only had a fight go past the first round twice, and both those fights ended within the first minute of the second round. Marshall does know how to throw on a submission if the opportunity presents itself, but I expect both these guys to stand and trade blows until the other one falls. While I said Stann was not a technical striker, I don’t think Doug Marshall is either.

    I think the timing is right and the momentum is on Brian Stann’s side in this fight and we will see a new 205 lb. champion in the WEC. Winner: Brian Stann
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2008
  4. checkii

    checkii ฝรั่งตาน้ำข้าว

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    terrible fight to bet on. Stann should win. But fights liek these can just go any way. It's not like you can predict what someone's game plan is going to be in this fight.

    i say its a crap shoot that stann wins
     
  5. eof

    eof New Member

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    listed as "May not be broadcast"

    Sonnen
    --------
    -> 19-9-1
    -> Wins
    7 (T)KOs (36.84%)
    3 Submissions (15.79%)
    9 Decisions (47.37%)
    -> Losses
    2 (T)KOs (22.22%)
    6 Submissions (66.67%)
    1 Decisions (11.11%)
    -> This fight was supposed to be a title fight against Paulo Filho but Filho had to drop out because he lost his marbles and is in rehab
    -> Sonnen’s last fight was a controversial submission loss to Filho. Got caught in an armbar and screamed in pain but was dominating the fight prior to this.
    -> Proven to be susceptible to submissions
    -> wrestler

    Baker
    ------
    -> 6-0-0
    -> Wins
    3 (T)KOs (50.00%)
    2 Submissions (33.33%)
    1 Decisions (16.67%)
    -> Has not lost any of his 6 fights (a split in his last)
    -> Excellent conditioning, ground and pound, good stand up game

    Given the late card change neither fighers have had a long time to prepare for each other. Wish Baker was likely to submit Sonnen but it is hard to tell if he can. I won't bet on this I don't think.

    from mmahq.com:
    Chael Sonnen Vs. Bryan Baker - Chael Sonned was originally scheduled to rematch current WEC Middleweight Champion Paulo Filho, but Filho withdrew from the fight in the past two weeks due to checking himself into rehabilitation. Sonnen last fought in December against Filho were he lost in controversial fashion. Sonnen was controlling much of the fight, but was submitted via armbar when the referee says he verbally tapped out. Sonned says he didn’t submit and was looking forward to the rematch.

    That will have to wait as Bryan Baker (who was originally scheduled to fight Logan Clark) has stepped up to face Sonnen. Baker had an excellent “rookie year” in 2007 winning all four of his fights. I think Sonnen is much too experienced fight for Baker to face at this stage of his career. Look for Sonnen to use his superior wrestling skills and experience to gain an easy victory over Baker. Winner: Chael Sonnen
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2008
  6. eof

    eof New Member

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    If it is a crap shoot then I will take +125 any day of the week. Want to do some coin flips and give me +125 odds?
     
  7. checkii

    checkii ฝรั่งตาน้ำข้าว

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    this was the only other underdog i thought would be worth betting on.

    crap shoots dont pay out 50% do they?

    Stann's gonna win, i just wouldnt put money on it.
     
  8. f-g

    f-g OT Supporter

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    baker is +300 on sports book so I bet a little on him
     
  9. eof

    eof New Member

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    Hicks
    -----
    -> 7-0-0
    ->
    2 (T)KOs (28.57%)
    4 Submissions (57.14%)
    1 Other (14.29%)
    -> All fights have been 1 or 2 rounds
    -> 33

    Ratcliff
    --------
    -> 6-0-0
    ->
    5 (T)KOs (83.33%)
    1 Submissions (16.67%)
    -> Striker
    -> 1 or 2 round fights
    -> Beat Alex Karalexis

    I like Hicks..I think he has more tools but on the other hand Ratcliff looks like he is a tough motherfucker. I am going to put some small action on Hicks.


    From mmahq.com: Marcus Hicks to win
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2008
  10. eof

    eof New Member

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    A true 50/50 crap shoot (like a coin toss in a football game) pays out 2-1 minus the juice (depends on the book/bookie)...so like -110 or -115
     
  11. eof

    eof New Member

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    McKenzie
    ----------
    -> 11 - 4 - 0
    -> Wins
    7 (T)KOs (63.64%)
    3 Submissions (27.27%)
    1 Decisions (9.09%)
    -> Losses
    2 (T)KOs (50.00%)
    2 Submissions (50.00%)
    -> BJJ

    Cantwell
    ----------
    -> 4-1-0
    -> Only loss is to Stann and everyone is sack riding Stann so this kid might be ok


    From mmahq.com:
    Steve Cantwell Vs. Tim McKenzie - Tim McKenzie is one of the two fighters who hold a victory over light heavyweight champion Doug Marshall. McKenzie also has greater experience including fights against Akihiro Gono, Chael Sonnen, and Scott Smith. The “Wrecking Machine” McKenzie will most likely look to keep the fight standing and use his striking skills. Steve Cantwell is still a relative newcomer to MMA with a record of 4-1, two wins via strikes and two wins via submission. This fight is tough to call, but I give the edge to McKenzie for the strength of his experience and striking game. Winner: Tim McKenzie
     
  12. eof

    eof New Member

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    mmahq.com's picks for the other undercards:
    Hiromitsu Miura Vs. Blas Avena - Winner: Blas Avena
    John Alessio Vs. Brock Larson - Winner: Brock Larson
    Sergio Gomez Vs. Richard Crunkilton Jr. - Winner: Richard Crunkilton
    Ryan Stonitsch Vs. Alex Serdyukov - Winner: Ryan Stonitsch
    Chris Manuel Vs. Kenji Osawa - Winner: Kenji Osawa
    Logan Clark Vs. Scott Harper - Winner: Logan Clark
     
  13. JordanClarkson

    JordanClarkson OT Supporter

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    I think John will beat Brock and I think he's going to overpower him. He's bulked up and worked a lot on his wrestling. I see Brock fighting cautiously and overlooking Alessio, thinking more about the rematch with Condit. But that's a win assuming we'll see the best Alessio and the worst Larson. I'd feel comfortable putting a small amount on it.
     

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