Excited for new tech in the next 2 years - predictions

Discussion in 'OT Technology' started by xinster, Jun 27, 2008.

  1. xinster

    xinster New Member

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    I believe by 2009 q1 hard drives will be completely obsolete due to flash memory lowering in cost/gig at a faster rate. I think they are about equal already. This'll probably have a large effect on servers/ business then laptops first.

    Can we count on usb3.0 by late 2009 q1? That'll be awesome too. I don't know what kinda new peripherals that might bring, maybe some shit like HD webcams. Hopefully Vista sp2 is released by then. By the time usb3 comes out usb flash drives will also be much faster, and the combination of the two will make readyboost like 50x better than it is now.

    Windows 7 by 2010 I hope. Gates said they are aiming for performance improvements, as opposed to meaningless bullshit.

    Opera 10 might come out too, but I haven't really looked into that. I'm a big fan of ff3, I just keep opera installed as a back up.

    What do you guys think? Amirite?
     
  2. dorkultra

    dorkultra OT's resident crohns dude OT Supporter

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    I want faster hard drives
     
  3. Doc Brown

    Doc Brown Don't make me make you my hobby

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    Me too, but there's no way that traditional hard drives are going to be obsolete anytime soon.

    Everybody is coming out with them, but expect them to cost an arm and a leg for quite some time to come for any size worth using.
     
  4. Sailor Jerry

    Sailor Jerry OT Supporter

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    You expect hard drives to be obsolete in 6 months? Are you nuts?
     
  5. Peyomp

    Peyomp New Member

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    Windows 7 by 2010? My, you are an optimist :big grin:

    None of that much matters to me. Operating systems are largely irrelevant - except as great or small sources of annoyance while we use the web as our computing platform. What will continue to be interesting in the next 2 years is whether social networks start to have payoff, or continue to be mostly useless. Whether a web office product will start to overtake traditional office software. Whether Web 2.0 will start showing profit after the boom is over. Crap like that.

    But I agree, in 2 years solid state drives will be crowding hard drives big time.
     
  6. trouphaz

    trouphaz New Member

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    i think it'll be a bit longer for SSD drives to fully replace regular hard drives. any completely new technology really needs to prove itself before everyone swings over.

    i'm interested in wireless technologies. i can't wait for wireless-n to take off and i'd also like to see more wireless access on portable devices using cellular networks (i know that's not the right term anymore, but i just meant to differentiate between that and WiFi).
     
  7. P07r0457

    P07r0457 New Member

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    i dont see ssd's matching magnetic disks in capacity in the next 2 years.


    And HD webcams are alreasy supported by existing IEEE1394 and USB 2.0 buses.

    The problem with HD webcams is the bandwidth required to stream over the internet -- specifically uplink. We need reform at last-mile by the ISPs.
     
  8. Peyomp

    Peyomp New Member

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    Yeah, the iPhone is going to really take off as a computing platform and I'm looking forward to web 2.0 shenanigans paying off via widgets on palm devices. Once GPS is tied to these services, they get really interesting. Then once they can TALK to you, they get extremely interesting. I want a REALLY personal digital assistant... that I can talk to, that is GPS aware, that can google maps for me, tell me who people are, etc.
     
  9. Peyomp

    Peyomp New Member

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    Which won't happen for most people, unless they're lucky enough to be in a Verizon territory :(
     
  10. P07r0457

    P07r0457 New Member

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    yea, it's sad :wtc:

    I almost want bandwidth to become a "utility" like water/power/garbage. almost.
     
  11. dissonance

    dissonance reset OT Supporter

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    As far as the hard drives, they are going to be around for some time. SAS 2.0 (6GB/s) should be out around 1Q 2009. SATA-III (6GB/s) should be around the 1Q 2010 (not as sure about this date, don't talk about it much so can't remember very well when its expected). Fibre Channel drives are soon to go away though.. I can't remember the release date but it is late this year or early next year when the new models of fibre channel drives come out and that is the last set to be made. They will continue to make them for some time, just not develop any new ones. FC will continue to be developed as a backend connection after that though.

    As for SSD drives, they are pretty much out and whoop the shit out of current disk drives (as far as random & small file tests, haven't seen sequencial/large file numbers). The only problem is that unless you are buying massive quantities, expect to pay ~20-30k per drive, assuming you want one that actually out performs disk drives.
     
  12. dissonance

    dissonance reset OT Supporter

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    I don't know anything about USB 3.0, how does it compare to USB 2.0?
     
  13. Peyomp

    Peyomp New Member

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    Its absurd that the telcos haven't invested in their networks in the last 10 years. Once broadband hit, it plateaud and we're now lagging behind the rest of the west in speed.
     
  14. Peyomp

    Peyomp New Member

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    In two years 50% of notebooks sold will have SSD drives. People will be using online storage more, SANs on home networks, etc. so won't need tons of space locally.
     
  15. P07r0457

    P07r0457 New Member

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    10x faster.

    USB 3.0: 600 MByte/sec (4.8 GBit/sec)
    USB 2.0: 60 MByte/sec (480 MBit/sec)
    USB 1.1: 1.5 MByte/sec (12 MBit/sec)
     
  16. P07r0457

    P07r0457 New Member

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    still need a reform in last-mile bandwidth to support that. Thankfully, Sprint is leading the way with X-Ohm and it's 4G network that's going public at the end of this year :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown:

    70Mbps peak transfer rates, with mobility comprable to mobile phones :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown:

    And Intel is on-board with the tech to include Wi-Max functionality built-in to a future version of their Centrino platform.

    It's gonna kick so much fucking ass.
     
  17. dissonance

    dissonance reset OT Supporter

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    :bigthumb:

    that's all i have to say
     
  18. P07r0457

    P07r0457 New Member

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    It costs a LOT to overhaul a copper telco back-end. The government subsidized it in the past, but they're not willing to do it again -- so telcos are avoiding coming out-of-pocket on their own.

    Cable co's were essentially FORCED to upgrade to HFC in order to meet their video demands and remain competitive with sat providers. A nice side-effect to the HFC upgrade was the increased back-end capacity for broadband.

    Telcos have thus-far remained competitive with increasing ADSL tech... But now cable co's are focusing on broadband as a primary focus (instead of simply a side-service) and the potential of the HFC backbone greatly exceeds the copper twisted-pair that telcos use.

    Also, cable co's already have fibre run to the pedestal in local neighborhoods. That means much shorter coax lines to the end-user -- and coax is inheriently better at resisting noise and signal degredation, anyway.

    Telcos have the problem of small awg loops in most older areas (although newer runs use thicker loops). You also have the disadvantage of loop length.

    A cable co can run fibre to within a few hundred feet of most subscribers, leaving very little actually using coax. However, telcos traditionally use copper the entire way, which puts many users in the 10k+ loop length, and reducing the speed that they can acheive using ADSL tech.

    Telcos could run fibre to the pedestal, and install DSLAMs in the local neighborhoods (a la remote terminal) but that is costly. Honestly, they'd be best to invest in FTTP tech like Verizon. However, most are not willing to make that investment.
     
  19. Peyomp

    Peyomp New Member

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    If nets get that fast and that everywhere - I want a wearable computer with glasses.
     
  20. P07r0457

    P07r0457 New Member

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    X-Ohm will be limited at much less, but it's still gonna fucking kick ass. It's supposed to have really good latency, as well -- which is a big issue with current 3G networks, imo.

    I'll love it when it's a standard part of Centrino.


    I also :bowdown: that Sprint is gonna remain #1 in wireless data.

    Verizon is supposed to move towards GSM (to unify global operations with their euro-partners Vodaphone) and that means that Verizon is gonna lose their edge, imo.
     
  21. Peyomp

    Peyomp New Member

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    Telcos do not traditionally use copper all the way. They have run fiber to withing a couple hundred feet of the home for a long time, why not just close the fucking gap?

    Its a bad situation where they are milking government subsidized infrastructure as long as they can. If Verizon can afford to run fiber to the house, why can't AT&T/Bell whoever?
     
  22. P07r0457

    P07r0457 New Member

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    actually, no, they don't. 99.9% of telco loops to residential customers are copper from the wire center to the home.
     
  23. Peyomp

    Peyomp New Member

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    I don't believe that is the case since the 80s.
     
  24. P07r0457

    P07r0457 New Member

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    you're in for a big surprise, then.

    I know this for a fact. I have friends both at Qwest and Embarq (formerly sprint). Both carriers have a limited number of RT and FTTP installations, but the VAST majority of their residential service is fully copper from the WC to the NID.
     
  25. Limp_Brisket

    Limp_Brisket New Member

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