AIDS risk?

Discussion in 'Vaginarium' started by JohnJohnJohnson, Dec 26, 2006.

  1. JohnJohnJohnson

    JohnJohnJohnson Effetely Sipping My Latte OT Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2004
    Messages:
    23,006
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Manhattan
    I've done some research on google.com and found a couple things out.

    Recently I've been interested in improving my success with women. However I don't want to do that at the risk of my life. So I've been looking into the STD factor.

    It appears that approximately 75/10000 (0.75%) of Americans have HIV. Of that population, ~50% are black people. Which is a ridiculous number, since only 13% of people in the U.S. are even black. 35% are white, and 1% are Asian or something else.

    ~23% are women.

    I further read that for some people, condoms do not break, whereas others find that they break repeatedly. (Condoms in other words break because of usage, not generally because of manufacturing flaws.) I have never had a condom break, so I consider myself one of the "good" users. I'd say I've gone through at least 200 condoms. So lets say the likelihood for me of a condom breaking is (overestimating) 1/100.

    So let's say I am about to have a one-night stand with some girl. I ask if she's been tested. If she says "No," we don't have sex. She says she has been tested. Then we have protected sex. I could still get HIV if:

    1) She was lying about being tested, and
    2) She has HIV, and
    3) The condom breaks, and
    4) I get infected.

    ?% * 0.18% * 1% * ?% = ? * 0.0018 * 0.01 * ? < 0.000018

    So a given one night stand will give me HIV with a probability of up to 18 in 1 million, or less than 1 in 55,555. That's also a pretty conservative lower bound.

    Don't take this post as medical advice. If I'm wrong and you die of autoimmune deficiency disorder I'll feel bad and you'll be dead. Do your own research and make your own decisions. Feel free to give me feedback however.
     
  2. PocoDiablo

    PocoDiablo New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2004
    Messages:
    4,413
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    NOVA
    I read that if you have unprotected sex with a woman with HIV, you have a 1 in 25 chance of catching AIDS. Drug users (needle based) are the most likely to catch it, as I recall, as are their partners. You don't see much of that news, though.

    This is not some rampant disease... But the media sure likes to hype it.
     
  3. iwishyouwerebeer

    iwishyouwerebeer you shut your cunt Moderator

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2006
    Messages:
    32,592
    Likes Received:
    5
    I've had two condoms break on me, luckily nothing happened. If you are truly worried about it maybe don't sleep around? Just a thought.
     
  4. mare

    mare New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2006
    Messages:
    52
    Likes Received:
    0
    I still think that if you're having casual sex...new & different partners...a condom should always be used!! Unless you're in a committed relationship where you've both been tested & are exclusive to each other!!
     
  5. Genghis.Tron

    Genghis.Tron New Member

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2002
    Messages:
    5,188
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Great White North
    I think the odds are higher than that. I dunno about the US, but in Canada, they think that 1/3 of the people with HIV don't even know it. Plus, it takes about 3 months before the tests can detect the HIV.
    I also recall seeing a documentary about a doctor who had many patients with HIV and he said that many of them came back with ANOTHER STD meaning that they still had unprotected sex.
     
  6. Yail Bloor

    Yail Bloor OT Supporter

    Joined:
    May 5, 2002
    Messages:
    57,466
    Likes Received:
    7
    Location:
    the streets
    you have to consider the means of transmission

    a woman passing HIV to a man through vaginal intercourse is rare

    So stay away from her booty hole and your odds go way down.
     
  7. Abomb

    Abomb New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2005
    Messages:
    20,480
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Houston, TX
  8. toeshoes

    toeshoes Guest

    there are other non-curable things you can also catch though and those incidences are higher. What about Herpes and Hepatitis? Or getting her pregnant and having to pay 18 years of child support?
     
  9. weakone

    weakone New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2003
    Messages:
    24,490
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    ny
    My friend, who is a girl, who sleeps around, lives in Brooklyn, where I used to live. She recently told me that 1 in 3 people in the NYC area has AIDS.. And apparently, due to her habits, she's been tested a lot.. Luckily came up negative every time, but still not a risk I'd be willing to take.
     
  10. huntz0r

    huntz0r New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2005
    Messages:
    15,951
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Charlotte, NC
    This is the point.
     
  11. JohnJohnJohnson

    JohnJohnJohnson Effetely Sipping My Latte OT Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2004
    Messages:
    23,006
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Manhattan
    The focus here is not on whether I am worried about it, but whether I should be worried about it. It's not an emotional discussion, but a logical one.
     
  12. JohnJohnJohnson

    JohnJohnJohnson Effetely Sipping My Latte OT Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2004
    Messages:
    23,006
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Manhattan
    1 in 3 New Yorkers have AIDS? :rofl:
     
  13. JJM Enterprises

    JJM Enterprises New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2006
    Messages:
    131
    Likes Received:
    0
    The funniest part of this post is that... "due to her habits, she's been tested a lot.." Well - if she DID catch HIV due to her habits, she's probably already screwed. I guess the testing could be for other STD's also, or just peace of mind... but obviously her habits aren't the safest!

    One would think that getting tested often due to being afraid... might lead one to change their lifestyle a bit!

     
  14. weakone

    weakone New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2003
    Messages:
    24,490
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    ny
    She's protected all the time, or so she says. She gets tested a lot because she sleeps around. By a lot, I mean like two or three times a year. I get tested at least once or twice every year, and I've only ever been with one person.. The same person I'm with now. I am in no way defending her habtis, however at least she's showing some responsibility. There are people out there who haven't ever been tested (such as my SO).
     
  15. weakone

    weakone New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2003
    Messages:
    24,490
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    ny
    I :dunno: where she gets her facts from, but at least the belief that that's true caues her to be more responsible with herself.
     
  16. dude guy

    dude guy Guest

    edited
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 1, 2007
  17. Devil Deko

    Devil Deko OT Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2007
    Messages:
    4,887
    Likes Received:
    0
    sorry for digging this thread out but the math was great :rofl:

    Even though I stilll think it's not the best choice to sleep around and fuck skanks.
    Delude nice girls and fuck them. If something bad happen she's screwed too.
     
  18. audrey

    audrey New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2005
    Messages:
    2,542
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Down Under
    What about oral sex?? :dunno:

    Who has protected oral sex???
     
  19. NCS

    NCS Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2002
    Messages:
    5,777
    Likes Received:
    0
    its true that vaginal intercourse has "low" risks of hiv transmission.

    also, as for the condom breaking, once i started using lube, they NEVER broke, and ive went through a ton.
     
  20. Kinks

    Kinks Sup. OT Supporter

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2003
    Messages:
    8,692
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney, Australia
    You've probably got more chance of being hit by a bus as you cross the road. I know which way I'd rather bring about my own undoing.
     
  21. nish81

    nish81 OT Supporter

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2006
    Messages:
    11,182
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    london
    :hs: where I live, there's a 80% chance of AIDS whenever you have sex with any chick, and even a 75% of getting it from a bloodtest :hs:

    edit: assuming an unsterilized needle in a bloodtest
     
  22. Falconer

    Falconer OT Supporter

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2006
    Messages:
    65,506
    Likes Received:
    1
    Consider the demographics.

    x% of people have HIV. That is the entire population.

    The club going, promiscious demographic has a higher incidence of HIV than the "loser, no social life" demographic.

    And of those two demographics, which do you think you're more likely to "hook up" with?
     
  23. Kinks

    Kinks Sup. OT Supporter

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2003
    Messages:
    8,692
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney, Australia
    ^^ damn good point. same goes for other STDs.
     
  24. GTLifter

    GTLifter Banned

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2005
    Messages:
    62,453
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Durty Durty ATL Niggah
    I'd move out.
     
  25. sassy2424

    sassy2424 New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2006
    Messages:
    91
    Likes Received:
    0

    :noes::noes:
     

Share This Page